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未讀 2016-10-18, 05:19 PM   #1
buffet
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註冊日期: 2011-06-07
文章: 1,501
預設 High-Pressure Economy 高壓經濟


高通膨經濟 (high-pressure economy)

Yellen: Fed might want to run a 'high-pressure economy'


Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Friday, 14 Oct 2016 |



Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, September 21, 2016 in Washington, DC.


In a further indication that the Federal Reserve will be inclined to let inflation run hot for a while, Chair Janet Yellen on Friday said it's useful to consider the benefits of a "high-pressure economy."

Normal times call for the U.S. central bank to stand vigilant watch over price pressures. However, Yellen said the post-financial crisis period has pushed policymakers into reconsidering the dynamics of inflation.

She pointed out that the economy has seen an unusual tendency of weak demand against strong supply, making it reasonable "to ask whether it might be possible to reverse these adverse supply-side effects by temporarily running a 'high-pressure economy,' with robust aggregate demand and a tight labor market."


Yellen made the remarks at the Boston Fed in a speech that offered few clues otherwise about the near-term future of monetary policy.


The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee hasn't approved an interest rate increase since December 2015. However, pressure is building. Three FOMC members dissented at the September meeting, believing the committee should have raised it key funds rate a quarter-point. Traders believe there's about a 65 percent chance the committee will hike in December.


The Fed would like to see inflation run about 2 percent, but that goal has remained elusive and has triggered a lower-for-longer approach to interest rates. Yellen's remarks Friday could add to the belief that the Fed would let inflation run above its target before getting more aggressive about raising rates.

Yellen said in her speech that the world after the financial crisis has forced central bankers to re-think their approach. Cutting interest rates alone isn't enough in a low-rate world, she said, adding that the movements in the U.S. play a key role in the world.


"Research by Federal Reserve staff suggests that, all told, U.S. monetary policy spillovers to other economies are positive — that is, policies designed to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy also boost activity abroad, as negative effects of dollar depreciation are offset by positive effects of higher U.S. imports and easier foreign financial conditions," she said.

However, she said policymakers need to broaden their approach, particularly when looking at how financial crises affect individuals rather than the broader public. Homeowners with negative equity, for instance, were hit disproportionately during the last crisis.



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未讀 2016-10-18, 05:24 PM   #2
buffet
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註冊日期: 2011-06-07
文章: 1,501
預設

'High Pressure Economy' Means Future-Focused Investing


Oct. 17, 2016 9:47 AM ET| Includes: AA, C, HON, JPM
Bill Ehrman



We have been discussing for weeks on end how there has been a mindset shift leading towards fiscal stimulation on top of global monetary ease that would lead to accelerating global economic growth, higher inflation, a steepening in the yield curve and much higher profitability.

Accordingly, I've recommended that you re-position your asset allocation and investment selection by selling the old winners, buying the past losers and owning no bonds whatsoever. While patience is needed to let this strategy unfold, the die has been cast. Bet on reflation!


Look at the data points that came out last week supporting this view:

  1. India lowered rates
  2. China announced new plans to stimulate domestic consumption
  3. Chinese inflation turned up
  4. France and Italy are moving toward more fiscal stimulation even though it may break the deficit pact, but political risks and the rise in populism are outweighing budgetary concerns and fear of Germany's retaliation
  5. Both U.S. Presidential candidates have announced that multi-hundred billion infrastructure spending programs will be their first priority
  6. Saudi Arabia wants to keep the price of oil up so that they can issue debt and bring Aramco public

And finally there was Janet Yellen's speech in Boston on Friday which basically said that the benefits of a "High Pressure Economy" are substantial. This means that the Fed will be reticent raising rates; will stay behind the curve, and let the economy run and, with it, economic growth and inflation. This does not mean that the Fed won't raise rates. It will. Rather it will be slow and one step behind, risking an overheating economy and much higher inflation.


Investors have to stop looking in the rear-view mirror in order to drive forward. The way to move ahead is to look through the windshield towards the desired destination and plan the trip accordingly.

Future-focused investing means investors have to review corporate strategies to see who is best positioned and are most leveraged for an accelerating economy. Look for quality companies that can weather any environment with dividend yield above the 10-year treasury as it provides downside protection.


   


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未讀 2016-10-18, 05:29 PM   #3
buffet
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註冊日期: 2011-06-07
文章: 1,501
預設

搶救失業 葉倫擬採高壓經濟


2016-10-16

〔編譯王惠慧/綜合報導〕美國聯準會主席葉倫週五表示,聯準會可能需要採取「高壓經濟」,來修復○八、○九年以來輸出放緩、勞工失業等所造成的傷疤。葉倫在談話中顯露對美國經濟的擔憂,且認為需要積極措施來重建經濟,但並未直接提及利率及貨幣政策。


葉倫於波士頓一場與政界、學界人士的餐會上表示,由於經濟正處在供應強勁、需求疲弱的趨勢之下,因此可以合理地提出疑問,採取臨時性的「高壓經濟(high-pressure economy)」,以振興總體需求和勞動市場,是否可能扭轉需求疲弱所帶來的不利影響。



「高壓經濟」的概念,意思是忍受通膨短期略超過目標,讓經濟過熱一段短時間,刺激經濟進一步復甦


暗示通膨高於目標 才可能升息

財經媒體「CNBC」報導,葉倫此番言論將讓市場相信,聯準會要先看到通膨高於目標,才可能積極考慮調升利率。雙線資本創辦人岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)則認為,葉倫是在說「不必因為通膨達二%目標就緊縮政策」;他表示,若聯準會認為通膨上升僅是一時的,可能讓通膨率升到三%


路透報導,葉倫在談話中提到,金融危機以來,各國央行已被迫重新思考他們的策略,在低利率的時代,光降息是不夠的。因此,即使冒著通膨升高的風險,聯準會正在尋找一種政策,能夠降低失業率並刺激消費,使企業家願意投資、增加投資人信心,並讓更多勞動力回到市場

紐約傑富瑞公司(Jefferies LLC)分析師塞門斯(Thomas Simons)表示:「這是葉倫開出的藥方,劑量低但期待長期有效,且並未排除年內升息一碼的可能性。」


   


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標簽
high-pressure economy, 高壓經濟, 高通膨經濟


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